tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15234271415058531562024-03-21T22:57:57.489-04:00Puck StormingJust thinking hockey...
e-mail: puckstorming@gmail.comAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-46167801387568174722013-05-24T14:08:00.000-04:002013-05-24T14:08:51.184-04:00The Under-appreciated: Matt Greene<br />
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What better way to see
the value of a punishing defensive-defenseman than Matt Greene in game 5
against the Sharks? There's been a certain sentiment that defensive d-men are
going extinct in the post lockout NHL, but while it did weed out some of the
defenseman with suspect hockey-sense, there still very much is a role for Matt
Greene types. </div>
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Matt Greene was plastering Sharks into the boards and over the
ice all game long, setting a physical tone for the whole team to follow, San
Jose's forecheck soon went MIA and they had trouble even with breakouts from
their own zone as the Kings established their physical dominance. </div>
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How do you
quantify the value of that? You can't. Maybe the Oilers should pay attention
the next time they deal players like Stoll and Greene away, the same type they
now years later are looking for to supplement their kids with. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-44910324292516018102013-05-20T15:55:00.002-04:002013-05-20T15:57:20.689-04:00Elias Lindholm and the 2013 draft class<br />
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If you follow the news
about the upcoming 2013 NHL draft, you might have seen that by now the general
feeling is that there is a tier of difference between the likes of Barkov,
Drouin, Nichuskin and sometimes others (Jones and MacKinnon figure as the top two
in nearly every list there is) and the next tier. Rarely if ever do you see Elias Lindholm
mentioned in the same tier, despite the fact that in my opinion he should be.
Not only that I think Lindhom is going to end up being the better player, ahead of
Barkov, Drouin and Nichuskin, aside from Jones and MacKinnon there
is no other player I would consider ahead of Lindholm in this draft.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSDjGFzyVhKx-jly0FCtxeuzW2BxpksNYIj1ct7DbPJ928yNIYPNyH5jNdTSz5FJfu6Fc3dSh86t1fQaYwBIhrQAJe9OELJKWrMLfLdORDh0Tb05rR4KDmfOgXEWqodhoQsojFNXGEJhg/s1600/elias_lindholm_4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSDjGFzyVhKx-jly0FCtxeuzW2BxpksNYIj1ct7DbPJ928yNIYPNyH5jNdTSz5FJfu6Fc3dSh86t1fQaYwBIhrQAJe9OELJKWrMLfLdORDh0Tb05rR4KDmfOgXEWqodhoQsojFNXGEJhg/s1600/elias_lindholm_4.jpg" /></a></div>
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So why does he get
consistently rated below others? Well the simple fact is, most of Lindholm's
strengths aren't all that visible with the naked eye, he does not have a
standout factor like many others do, his technical skills are good but not
elite, physically he is good but not elite. So why think so highly of Lindholm,
he doesn't have the size of Barkov, he doesn't have the hands of Drouin, he
doesn't have the skill and size combination of Nichuskin, what is it then?
Elias Lindholm possesses a very rare trait, one that is invaluable in the NHL
and in small rinks in particular and that is his ability to put it into
overdrive – the 6th gear and the ability to make plays in very tight spaces
with very little time, his vision is as good as there is in this draft but
coupled with his aggression and the ability to make plays out of nothing
with limited space and time makes him a special player. The willingness to
attack the dirty areas of the ice with agression and the elusiveness coupled with the elite vision and very good hands to capitalize on those situations brings back the memories of another
Swede – Peter Forsberg. Though expecting Lindholm to reach that level is a bit
optimistic, I fully expect him to wreak havoc on opposition in much the same
way stylistically. The combination of the willingness to play in the dirty areas of the
ice, the elite vision, and the ability to switch into overdrive should be
enough to put Lindholm into the discussion with the top forwards in this draft,
I would go as far as putting him directly behind MacKinnon among forwards in the 2013 NHL entry draft.</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-76631488081115564512013-05-11T08:02:00.000-04:002013-05-11T09:45:25.513-04:00What's Next for Vancouver Canucks?If you listened to Mike Gillis' press conference, you should
get a pretty good idea at what's ahead for the Canucks. Gillis pointed out the
trend towards big, physical, tough to play against teams as opposed to teams
more focused on pure skill (though judging by his words he's not a fan of that
trend at all).<br />
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The Canucks figure to get younger and probably bigger, the
gameplan seems to be to surround their core with those type of players<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that will hopefully be able to go against the
bigger teams like LA, STL, SJ etc. This seems like a realistic path forward,
however the thing that interests me is whether the Canucks will also change
their player deployment. Mike Gillis did not talk about this at all nor was he
ever questioned about it, however if you take a look at the teams Gillis was
reffering to they all feature their top players drawing the toughest
assignments all over the ice, often getting power-vs-power matchups equally in
the defensive as well as offensive zone. The Canucks are actually a polar opposite
of this with their role specialization (<a href="http://puckstorming.blogspot.com/2013/04/vancouver-canucks-unlucky-or-not-good.html" target="_blank">more on this here</a>). Although that
really can be argued is a coaching issue, and Gillis did say coaching will be
evaluated like everything else. </div>
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So what should be the next step for the Canucks? As Gillis
said, a bigger, tougher to play against look is in store, but it should be
important not to forget about the fact that most of the teams that had success
in the last few years also favor a more complete role for their top forwards
than the Canucks do, the big question is how would the Sedins perform in such
matchups not only in the offensive zone but the defensive zone (and possibly
PK) as well, and it is something that Canucks should explore as they in Gillis'
words hit the reset button. If it turns out the Sedins just can't handle that
type of complete role bigger changes might be in store than just surrounding
them with bigger, tougher support
players.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-19713771628583264112013-05-03T16:04:00.001-04:002013-05-03T16:05:38.339-04:00The Anatomy of a Budget Team<br />
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With the Phoenix Coyotes
and Nashville Predators finally missing the playoffs for the first time in
years (2008-2009 season to be exact), it might be time to look at how the two
teams with relatively low payrolls managed to have a decent amount of success.
Using <a href="http://capgeek.com/" target="_blank">Capgeek's</a> archives we can see that Phoenix ranked 29th, 22nd and
22nd in spending from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012 season, while Nasville ranked
28th, 21nd and 23rd in the same time frame.<o:p></o:p></div>
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So how did those two
teams make the playoffs year after year despite never getting much attention
from various experts and the low payroll?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Roster<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Both teams do not possess
much of high-end skill up front as that is the most expensive thing in the
market. Instead both teams focus on sound two-way players with the ability to
win puck-battles and play sound defensive hockey. They have sound, tough to
play against two-way centers like Hanzal, Fisher, Legwand who don't posses the
salary or skill of their more high end
counterparts, but still provide the element needed to carry out the type of
game Predators and Coyotes want to play. Both teams avoid sinking money into
high end wingers instead opting for either for cheaper
skill wingers like Ray Whitney (left as UFA), Sergei Kostitsyn, Radim Vrbata, or opt for
wingers who provide a different game like Hornqvist and of course the big name
in Phoenix – Shane Doan (more on this <a href="http://puckstorming.blogspot.com/2013/04/blinded-by-flash.html" target="_blank">here</a>),. Both teams however favor a strong and deep defense
group – Yandle, OEL, Weber, Suter (left as UFA) and a plethora of other serviceable
defensemen and high end prospects in both systems. Nashville also has an
all-star goalie in Pekka Rinne, while Phoenix had Bryzgalov and Smith later on.</div>
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<b>Coaching</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Dave Tippett and Barry
Trotz are two excellent coaches who have provided their teams with a structure
that lends itself to the type of players they have and can afford. Both teams
place emphasis on sound, defensively aware hockey with a strong emphasis on
winning puck battles which goes hand in hand with the roster both coaches have
at disposal. This makes both teams hard to play against, this type of hockey
tends to keep games close even when they're playing against teams that can
boast a higher talent level, it is very rare that you will see either team have
the kind of defensive meltdown that would put the game out of hand for them. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Drafting and development<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Both teams, but
especially the Predators have kept their system going with new prospects being
brought in and developed. Both teams have had their defense flushed with
projectable prospects. Nashville especially has been a gold mine of young
defensemen over the past couple of years.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>So how do the Predators and Coyotes do it?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The success of Phoenix
and Nashville despite the low payrolls is a result of a well oiled machine that
mixes sound roster decisions (the avodiance of high end skill and flash up
front in favor of cheaper all around ability and strong defense), coaching
(defensively sound teams focused on winning puck battles and outcompeting the
opposition) and drafting and development (a steady intake of useful cheap young
players to fill the holes) under one philosophy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>How close were/are they?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Both teams were likely a
true #1 high end center away from being legitimate contenders or an overall
deeper forward group. If you add more high end skill up front you arrive at the
two teams who are the logical extension of the Phoenix/Nashville model – the
Boston Bruins and the Los Angeles Kings who do a lot of the things the same way
but with more high end skill up front. To conclude, both Phoenix and Nashville
are two teams who clearly do things "the right way" but simply didn't have the
financial muscle to go further than they did. If they did it wouldn't be
unimaginable that you'd be looking at them the same way you look at the Boston
Bruins and the Los Angeles Kings which is pretty much the same model
Phoenix/Nashville uses brought to it's logical conclusion.<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-17352836150926281702013-04-11T08:45:00.001-04:002013-04-12T11:40:23.493-04:00Blinded by Flash<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I figured I would elaborate a bit on <a href="http://puckstorming.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-case-for-defensive-defensemen.html" target="_blank">this</a> post. To
repeat the message of it for a second, my belief is flashy goal scoring wingers
are the most overpaid/overrated position in the NHL. Why does that happen? In
short, their contracts get inflated for two reasons:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">the
positive part of their game is the most easily recognizable – be it
stickhandling, shot, skating etc. and easily quantified by statistics,<span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">the
negative part or the part that is often lacking is however easily dismissed or
overlooked – the lack of boardwork, lack of winning puck battles, poor
defensive zone game, perimeter only positioning etc., none of that shows up in
statistics (save for advanced stats but there is still progress to be made even
there especially on the defensive side of game)</span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is human nature to put excessive importance on
point 1. It's far more breathtaking watching a succesful dangle rather than 5
board battles won. And then you have the fact that point 1 is far easier to
quantify with traditional statistics. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFN_V9kmKqS7T6anOcRipqwr3C93B4TZj3EX8uGCxzDly35xFObuN3s-lSTTYowGRtZ07eRuC1kQzFAQ1AusX3IzSCoB6MA25OA3DB6yO6C9hhfkzJzULyl-p_vlccId7DxYIRKZe8lFQ/s1600/Michael_Cammalleri_Flames.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFN_V9kmKqS7T6anOcRipqwr3C93B4TZj3EX8uGCxzDly35xFObuN3s-lSTTYowGRtZ07eRuC1kQzFAQ1AusX3IzSCoB6MA25OA3DB6yO6C9hhfkzJzULyl-p_vlccId7DxYIRKZe8lFQ/s320/Michael_Cammalleri_Flames.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>I'd like to focus now a bit now on concrete
examples.</b> First let's take a look at some of the highest cap hits among
forwards and identify the type of wingers I wrote about, for the lack of a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>better term let's just call it the "flashy
winger" position. There can be some debate on who qualifies or not for that, but
I will try to to name some players I think most people would agree fit the
bill.</span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Cap hit rank among forwards</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Player</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Cap hit amount</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">8.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.6pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Dany Heatley</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.6pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">$7,500,000</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.15pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border: none; height: 8.15pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.45pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">9.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 8.15pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Marian Gaborik</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 8.15pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">$7,500,000</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.15pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.15pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.45pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">15.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.15pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Alexander Semin</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.15pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">$7,000,000</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.6pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border: none; height: 8.6pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.45pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">21.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 8.6pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Ilya Kovalchuk</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 8.6pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">$6,666,667</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.15pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.15pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.45pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 68;">
<b><span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">31.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.15pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">Mike Cammalleri</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D2EAF1; border: none; height: 8.15pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 63; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 64;">
<span style="color: #31849b; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent5; mso-themeshade: 191;">$6,000,000</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 23.5pt; mso-row-margin-left: 134.45pt; mso-row-margin-right: 134.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
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<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; height: 23.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 134.5pt;" valign="top" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-top: .05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-cnfc: 4;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border: none; mso-cell-special: placeholder; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm;" width="179"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Numbers taken from: </span><a href="http://capgeek.com/leaders/?season=2012&type=CAP_HIT&position=F&limit=50"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">http://capgeek.com/leaders/?season=2012&type=CAP_HIT&position=F&limit=50</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Of course there are other potential candidates to
point out with similar cap hits in excess of 6 million, for example some would
argue Patrick Kane is another "flashy winger", but I did not include him for
the reason that I feel he provides an additional dimension in being both a
playmaker as well as possessing an excellent shot.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now consider the following metrics:</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First to spare you an enormous table, you would have
to go all the way back to 1995 to find a winger winning the Conn Smythe trophy,
and that winger was quite different from the type we're talking about here,
it was Claude Lemieux. You would have to go futher back to 1982 to find another
one in Mike Bossy. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now let's take a look at the way coaches shell out
ice time to their forwards (we know goalies and defensemen play more due to the
nature of the position so that would be rather unfair to compare). We're going
to take a look at some Stanley Cup champions' playoff statistics and analyze
them. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2012 – Los Angeles Kings</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The most noticeable winger on that squad was Dustin
Brown, who is far from the protoypical flashy winger and whose cap hit is only
$3,175,000. He was tied for first in points (PTS) on the team with Anze Kopitar,
and was second among forwards in time on ice (TOI). Jonathan Quick was the Conn
Smythe winner.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2011 – Boston Bruins</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Another team like the Kings notorious for not
spending on that type of winger, the closest was Phil Kessel whom they traded
to Toronto. The most noticeable winger was Brad Marchand, another winger far
from the prototypical flashy winger, another small cap hit. He was 3rd in PTS,
Milan Lucic received the most TOI among wingers and ranked 3rd among forwards.
Tim Thomas was the Conn Smythe winner.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2010 – Chicago Blackhawks</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Chicago is the first team with a somewhat of a fit
in Patrick Kane. Kane was 2nd in PTS, 2nd among forwards in TOI, Jonathan Toews
was the Conn Smythe winner. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2009 – Pittsburgh Penguins</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pittsburgh is another team who didn't invest in a
flashy goal scoring winger. I don't think there is any need to further look
into Pittsburgh when Bill Guerin received the most TOI among wingers and we
know the team boasted Crosby, Malkin, Staal down the middle. Conn Smythe to
Malkin.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2008 – Detroit Red Wings</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Another team without a flashy goal scoring winger,
their most noticeable winger was Johan Franzen – a power forward with skill,
lower cap hit, 3rd in PTS among forwards, 3rd in TOI among forwards. Conn
Smythe to Zetterberg.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I'm going to stop here because as you can see this
excerise goes on for a long time without much of a change. While these metrics
are not perfect, they do tend to give you the general idea that highly skilled
wingers just aren't that important, so it makes me curious why year after year we see the obscene contracts (the latest being Semin) handed out to them. </span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGJkQdQkEdIz1nvclV03cfZGT6g-Q0wIcPmSMhbwAbu_XOcV38IUENvq9zm_udX7gThCXO2CNS3_WMQM08wOxiLdjyvzJe1e-siyCroTWaqqaauYG9Ao2RC_Km_BALZSk2Z9-j7ORm-ac/s1600/marian-gaborik-jaroslav-halak-2009-10-24-21-40-351.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGJkQdQkEdIz1nvclV03cfZGT6g-Q0wIcPmSMhbwAbu_XOcV38IUENvq9zm_udX7gThCXO2CNS3_WMQM08wOxiLdjyvzJe1e-siyCroTWaqqaauYG9Ao2RC_Km_BALZSk2Z9-j7ORm-ac/s320/marian-gaborik-jaroslav-halak-2009-10-24-21-40-351.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I can think of three ways to better allocate funds
rather than engage in seemingly endless stupidity of reckless spending on flashy wingers:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>Option A</b>: If you really feel like you need that
highly skilled winger, I suggest going for a slightly less statistically
impressive options and have more money to allocate to C/D/G. Bobby Ryan has a
cap hit of 5.1 million, Jeff Carter 5.27 million, Tanguay 3.5 million,
Parenteau 4 million, Whitney 4.5 million, S. Kostitsyn 3 million, Vrbata 3
million, Havlat 5 million, C. Stewart 3 million, then there's J. Lupul at 4.25
million etc. Now some of those of course are more attractive than others, but
there's really no need to spend 7.5 million on Gaborik or Heatley (heck who
wouldn't take Bobby Ryan at 5.1 million over them).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>Option B</b>: Go after all around wingers with slightly
worse numbers, these guys are cheaper and you'll find a boatload of them
playing a prominent role on recent Stanley Cup champions. Again more cash to
spend on C/D/G. Some names: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Brad Marchand, Milan
Lucic, Johan Franzen, Jason Pominville, Loui Eriksson etc. Some guys mentioned
here could also be in option A and the other way around, again this is a bit of
a gray area (B. Ryan, J. Carter, Pominville and Eriksson could really go either
way for example) but I'm trying to give a general idea behind it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>Option C</b>: If you really want to pay a winger make
sure that not only is he highly skilled but that he boasts a full all around
game as well. Examples: Rick Nash, Zach Parise, Marian Hossa, Thomas Vanek etc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now any combination of these three options is fine,
but it' still somewhat interesting seeing GMs shell out money to players like
Semin, Gaborik, Heatley etc. year after year despite there being no track
record of that ever working. It is far more prudent to spend less on wingers in
general and spend your money on C/D/G, but this holds especially true for the
flashy wingers with attractive traditional statistics, best avoided as their
market value seems to be significantly out of whack with their overall contribution to a winning team. </span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-64549272370970215502013-04-03T18:28:00.000-04:002013-04-04T14:37:23.685-04:00Vancouver Canucks: Unlucky or Not Good Enough?<!--[if !mso]>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Vancouver Canucks are one of the best regular
season teams in the past couple of years if not the best one, they also went to
the finals in the 2010-2011 season and came within a game of winning it all,
eventually losing to the Boston Bruins in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals. The
Canucks are far from a poorly managed team, that said we will still try to take
a look at why the Stanley Cup has eluded them despite being a very successful
team. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The first thing that should be mentioned is that it
is entirely possible that they just weren't lucky enough, in hockey as in any
other sport but possibly even more so games tend to sometimes come down to
bounces and puck luck, over the long-term that luck tends to even out, however
when you're in a short format competition in the style of NHL playoffs a couple
of bounces or injuries going your way or the other can make a world of
difference. The other thing that should be mentioned - in the salary cap era it
is near impossible to stack teams the way you could when spending wasn't
limited (think of the pre-lockout Detroit and Colorado teams) and even then,
luck always played a role. It is safe to say it is impossible in the present
day to build a Stanley Cup winner, you can only build a Stanley Cup contender
and hope that the team goes all the way in one (or more) of the years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">While it is entirely possible the Canucks just
didn't have the bounces go their way, we are going to play a bit of a devil's
advocate here and discuss the option B – the team just wasn't/isn't good
enough. With that said let me introduce you to the player usage chart:</span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5HUaPgvBxIitHxPhBcrO6G9dZ5hQDTTlE7pRW6EbpFq9CacqRPaSCqEToOYYqkGoa-K_KwCTAfxXhw5oJ3EHIi1lSBPPLHLctqZpdErH8vZ0kt28PAe7rPZUrIOMCWhs3F0foTJJ2dug/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="596" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5HUaPgvBxIitHxPhBcrO6G9dZ5hQDTTlE7pRW6EbpFq9CacqRPaSCqEToOYYqkGoa-K_KwCTAfxXhw5oJ3EHIi1lSBPPLHLctqZpdErH8vZ0kt28PAe7rPZUrIOMCWhs3F0foTJJ2dug/s640/chart.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span>
</span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-language: SL; mso-no-proof: yes;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">(source:</span> <a href="http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Player_Usage_Charts_2012.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Player_Usage_Charts_2012.pdf</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">To give you a quick explanation of what it means –
the higher the player is on the y axis the tougher competition he plays
against, the further right on the x axis the more of his shifts start in the
offensive zone. Now I want you to pay attention to where the Sedins and
Malhotra are on the chart. What you will notice is that the Sedins didn't quite
get the toughest minutes on the team in the form of quality of competition, but
what's especially interesting is the fact that the Sedins started nearly 80% of
their shifts in the offensive zone while Malhotra took barely any at all. In
2011-2012 season there was no other team with such extreme zone-specific player deployment (if
you want to check out other teams' charts, they are all available in the link
posted below the chart). In fact this has been a staple of the Canucks for
years. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Under the chart we have Scott Cullen's take: </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">That doesn’t mean they are incapable of starting in
the defensive zone or facing more difficult competition, but head coach Alain
Vigneault is putting them in the best position to be successful <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">and there is little evidence that it would
be better for the Canucks to have the Sedins doing more heavy lifting while
giving Malhotra, Lapierre or Pahlsson more offensive zone starts</b>." (source:
</span><a href="http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Player_Usage_Charts_2012.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Player_Usage_Charts_2012.pdf</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">)</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">I have bolded the part that I find particularly interesting. While that
kind of player usage has clearly worked for the Canucks in the regular season,
the bolded makes me question whether it is the Sedins that can't handle a more
all-around role or is it the supporting cast in question that can't handle
anything more than a shutdown role? To elaborate, if we believe the Canucks
regular season record is indicative of their talent level as one of the best if
not the best teams in the league, then why are they afraid of playing power vs
power matchups all over the ice instead of using this kind of specialization? Surely the better
team would come out ahead in such a match-up? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">Why not try the old hockey cliche
of outplaying the guy on the other team, meaning let Henrik Sedin outplay
Kopitar/Toews/Datsyuk/etc. on the whole ice, and so on down throughout the lineup
line-by-line. Surely that is a reasonable proposition if you have confidence in
the Canucks being the best team in the league as their regular season record
suggested over the last couple of years? Unless you're trying to hide something
behind the specialization? Maybe Henrik Sedin isn't as good of an all around
player as a guy like Kopitar or Toews is? Or maybe the Canucks supporting cast
isn't as good as the supporting cast of Chicago or LA? If that's the reason,
then it might be time to re-evaluate whether the Canucks truly are the best of
the West and what to do to fix it. Certainly abandoning their specialization
approach for a power vs power approach would if nothing else help illuminate any
deficiencies, and just maybe if there aren't any the Canucks
go on and win the Cup. Why not give Henrik Sedin the opportunity to match up
against the West's best centers on the whole ice without being sheltered, and so
on down throughout the lineup? I can hardly think of a better motivational tool
than the idea of outplaying the guy playing the same role on the other team in
every facet of the game. If the Canucks are truly as good as their record
indicated in the last couple of years, they should come out ahead more often
than not. If they aren't, this approach will at least expose the holes instead
of hiding them behind specialization.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">To be fair to the Canucks while they still employ the same type of player
usage this year, their numbers seem to have normalized a little bit. Henrik
Sedin now starts 69% percent of his shifts in the offensive zone and Maxim
Lapierre took over the Malhotra role with only 25% of his shifts starting in
the offensive zone. The Sedins also rank a bit higher relative to the team in the quality of
competition they are facing than they did in past years. That said the approach
is still the same if a bit more mild. The Canucks also added Derek Roy, with
Sedin/Kesler (if healthy)/Roy down the middle that should make them even more
comfortable in taking the power vs power approach if they so desire.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: SL;">To finish it off, while it is entirely possible the Canucks simply didn't
have enough bounces go their way to win the Cup so far (it is hard after all to
criticize a team that came within a game of winning it all as recently as the
Canucks did), a different approach might help illuminate the issues if there are
any or maybe even prove fruitful enough to finally win that Cup. </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-45291114978098862592013-03-31T12:44:00.002-04:002013-03-31T12:47:17.825-04:00The Case for Defensive Defensemen<br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;">Here’s a controversial opinion, turns out Willie Mitchell might be
just as valuable to a team as Ilya Kovalchuk, however since what he does isn't
pretty or manifests itself in statistics it is a sacrilege to suggest this. You
can expand this in general to wingers with little impact on the game when
they're not scoring (there are worse examples than Kovalchuk) vs shutdown
defensemen who can make a first pass and aren't boneheaded with the puck on
their stick but don't put a lot of points on board.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJmnwtDunU051aPaw6B-Mf-RPL2Gy71tRCq03GUEQSYlLwSyos9fSZFLFs2vFHkZVdt6xnr6xhu8oe8LbR5V4p_k2KpHfX8BmB9q5RgSZr_kqK_zC5ZZjX30P_BXTXOG6Lhz3VUWm7TZw/s1600/Willie+Mitchell+Los+Angeles+Kings+v+Vancouver+-yWFyhkxD16l.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJmnwtDunU051aPaw6B-Mf-RPL2Gy71tRCq03GUEQSYlLwSyos9fSZFLFs2vFHkZVdt6xnr6xhu8oe8LbR5V4p_k2KpHfX8BmB9q5RgSZr_kqK_zC5ZZjX30P_BXTXOG6Lhz3VUWm7TZw/s320/Willie+Mitchell+Los+Angeles+Kings+v+Vancouver+-yWFyhkxD16l.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;"><br />
<br />
Since the part of the game that these type of wingers are really good at often
manifests itself in either pretty dangles and points it is human nature to
assume they have a bigger impact on the game as whole than they really do. A
successful dangle or a quick look at statistics is very easy to notice,
dangling when you have a better option open or not using your linemates as well
as you could, not engaging or losing puck battles, poor positioning or lazy
backchecking are often very subtle and forgiveable in human eyes when you just
went through 2 guys (even if the end result is a turnover, a poor or a blocked
shot or something else). This often leads to inflated contracts for these type
of forwards.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><br />
<br />
The defensive defenseman is basically the opposite of this. The part of the
game they are good at doesn't really manifests itself well in statistics nor is the game they play pretty to watch or marvel at the technical skills like stickhandling, obscene shots etc.. I
believe in general their contracts represent their value more accurately
(though I wouldn't lose any sleep if a guy like Mitchell made 5 million instead
of 3.5 which is probably below his actual value), however I think there is
still some room for improvement in establishing who the best defensive D-men
are when comparing them between eachother. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;">It's pretty easy to say a statement like -
this guy is a 30 goal scorer and justify 6 million per year without having to
worry about being crucified despite the lack of his overall game (even if he bombs later), but there is nothing to
hide behind when you're shelling out the money for a defensive-defenseman, it's
only your opinion as to what he contributes to a team, no stats (although there has been progress in the advanced stats community) to base the value on, </span><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 13px;">I do believe the GMs are much more conservative in handing out the money to the defensive D-men for this reason compared to goal scoring wingers.</span><span style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 10pt;">. For that reason I think defensive-defensemen on average receive contracts closer to their value than
the goal-scoring type of wingers mentioned above do (Heatley, Kovalchuk, Semin,
Kessel etc. well the Kessel contract isn't that bad). </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-87936533315773326352013-03-27T21:08:00.003-04:002013-04-14T04:18:49.652-04:00Edmonton Oilers: Addressing the Issues<h2>
Edmonton Oilers: Addressing the Issues</h2>
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As I have pointed out in
the previous post, there are four major issues with the Edmonton Oilers in
regards to the process of rebuilding the team - the mismatch between the
Western Conference and Oilers as it relates to the style of play (and the
roster needed to play that style), the yield of their lottery picks, team
composition, and the identity/culture of the team. Now let's take a look at the
ways for the franchise to move forward, what are the possible routes moving
forward and which should be taken. <o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTgb6p3FRADJfwOK0WML5d9unpAu1-E8vOPKgjDMvMT-dEX9T-Id4CVunIV38TLyhqVuBHdeEfDPxtoTaz3XwQ_awHWKLTOzl0oSnJv2lCruxLreIBxs25W6t2cIaDTQ3xXR1SRqbuK0E/s1600/ryan+nugent+hopkins+taylor+hall+jordan+eberle+edmonton+oilers.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTgb6p3FRADJfwOK0WML5d9unpAu1-E8vOPKgjDMvMT-dEX9T-Id4CVunIV38TLyhqVuBHdeEfDPxtoTaz3XwQ_awHWKLTOzl0oSnJv2lCruxLreIBxs25W6t2cIaDTQ3xXR1SRqbuK0E/s320/ryan+nugent+hopkins+taylor+hall+jordan+eberle+edmonton+oilers.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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First let us start off
with what we can't change and that is the <b>yield
of their lottery picks</b>. The Oilers couldn't do much here as mentioned
before as the draft classes didn't quite sport the Stamkos/Tavares type of home
run, not in the sense of top talent or in the positional sense (except for
Nugent-Hopkins). So there is no point in spending much time addressing this
issue, although it is worth mentioning the upcoming draft will be absolutely
huge for the Oilers as it sports all types of high end centers and defensemen at
the top, as well as getting a reputation for being a deep draft. For example players like Curtis Lazar and Ryan Hartman who don't
quite figure to be lottery picks are exactly the type of players the Oilers
need and would be an excellent addition in addressing multiple issue the Oilers
ran into during their rebuilding process, although that is obviously up for a
professional scouting staff to decide, I think it was worth mentioning those
two players just as an example of the type of player that is missing in the
Oilers organization. <o:p></o:p></div>
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As far as <b>the comparison between the Western
Conference and the Edmonton Oilers</b> goes, there needs to be an immediate
philosophy switch in the entire organization. The acquisitions of Mike Brown
and Mark Fistric certainly point in this direction. It would of course be ideal
if the management built the team with this in mind from the start, but it seems
like Tambellini and co. have finally realized they have not been placing enough
emphasis on the ability to engage and win puck battles and maintain puck
possession. The team is frankly soft, and more size but especially grit (Mike
Richards is a pretty small guy, but gritty) is needed. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The shift however should
be a philosophical one, just adding a couple of gritty guys to the pro roster
isn't going to cut it. There needs to be a clear <b>culture and identity</b> created. There needs to be a deliberate effort
from the top management down to the scouting staff, the coaching staff at all
levels, the development staff to look for and promote the idea of being tough
to play against, set on outcompeting the opposition. This should be a team that
doesn't trade Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene for Lubomir Visnovsky ever again. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
The tough part is really
the <b>team composition </b>part.<b> </b>The way I see it, there are only two
ways to address it. One is to trade one of their core pieces to address the
team composition the other is to take a wait-and-see approach and continue
drafting and hope it sorts it out by itself. Personally I think they should not
rush such a decision, long-term at least one of their holes will probably get
addressed by this draft as it is absolutely stacked with high-end centers and
defenseman. But I believe moving one of Eberle or Yakupov (I'm leaning towards
Yakupov) will eventually be needed. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a center should be
going nowhere, Hall is the type of player they should absolutely keep, in fact
they need more Taylor Halls if anything. Between Eberle and Yakupov, I would
definitely deal Yakupov as I feel despite having less pure athletic ability
Eberle is frankly the smarter player of the two and will probably end up as the
more well-rounded of the two as well. Yakupov I see as a poor man's
Ovechkin/Kovalchuk hybrid nothing to sneeze at but my belief is flashy goal scoring wingers are
categorically overrated and often overpaid (there will be an in-depth post
explaining my feelings on this eventually).<br />
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<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
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To <b>summarize</b>, the single most important thing the Oilers could and
should do is to start looking at the entire operation through the goggles of
identity. And that identity should promote character, two-way play, compete
level, boardwork, play in the dirty areas, clearing the front of the net,
outcompeting your opponent, being tough to play against, willingness to engage
puck battles etc. you get the idea. Brian Burke would just call it truculence. Those
are the type of players the Oilers should value and actively look to add
through signings, trades and draft, something that becomes automatic when the
entire organization looks through those goggles. <o:p></o:p></div>
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I realize this might
sound like a bunch of hot air, I'm not a fan of that type of management
rhetoric either, so the best way to illustrate it is to give examples. It
doesn't have to be a huge trade, it should just be a philosophical switch, the
Kings signed Michal Handzus at 4 million per year back in their rebuilding
times, they overpaid to get the player that was a fit for their identity (or
rather the type they wanted to build). They traded a young Patrick O'Sullivan
who just scored 20 goals for Justin Williams, a player who fit their identity
(something I think the Oilers should do on a bigger scale with Yakupov eventually,
obviously Yakupov probably won't tank as O'Sullivan did but the principle is
the same). They were all over Mike Richards once he became available (something
in my opinion the Oilers should have done as well), they traded Brayden Schenn,
Wayne Simmonds and a 2nd for him, HUGE price, but the reality is if there's a
poster boy for what the Kings are trying to achieve it's Mike Richards, so they
pulled the trigger. Way back, they traded a defenseman who was somewhat soft and
not a stalwart defensively but still a premier puck-moving defenseman in the
league in Visnovksy for Stoll and Greene. A move that the public widely perceived
as a win for the Oilers. At the time it looked like a top pairing puck moving<b> </b><span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">defenseman </span></span>or at best a second line center and a third pairing defenseman. But
the reality is that move was a complete fit for the Kings and for the type of
identity they wanted to achieve. This is the kind of mentality the Oilers
should adopt. Once the whole organization sees it through those goggles, it
manifests itself in drafting, development, trades, signings… It is not enough
to just assemble talented players by itself. And if it means you have to
eventually say goodbye to a Yakupov to bring the type of player(s) this team
needs, that is going to fit that identity, then you do it, you are extremely careful
about the parameters and the timing of it, but you do it. </div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523427141505853156.post-46199477984472189422013-03-26T19:13:00.001-04:002013-03-27T10:27:51.795-04:00Edmonton Oilers: State of the Rebuild<h2>
Edmonton Oilers: State of the Rebuild</h2>
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The Edmonton Oilers are
an interesting <span lang="EN-US">franchise
</span>to examine as they have recieved a
fair amount of attention in the recent past, although not quite for the reasons
you would typically expect such as winning, but rather as a result of a run
that has resulted in three <span lang="EN-US">consecutive </span>first overall picks (years: 2010, 2011, 2012) in
the NHL entry draft. They finished last in seasons 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, and 29th with only
the Columbus Blue Jackets behind them in 2011-2012, that same year they won the
draft lottery resulting in them picking first overall for the third time in a
row. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Although the shortened
2012-2013 season is still going and the standings in the Western Conference are
rather packed, the Edmonton Oilers do not appear to have taken a major step
forward.. While such results are expected of teams who are rebuilding, we will
take an in-depth look at the Edmonton Oilers rebuild and whether the
organization has done an optimal job in the process. To do that, we will look
at the four elements – the Oilers environment, the draft yields, the team
composition, and the identity and culture. Each of them I believe are the major
sticking points and the reason as to why the process has not been optimal. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8uSorDnjVK70-y6rqMfHksZV4KAO_V3jeDjdjB_cR4z32SishtYRGg_vTOPAKGbfwNAX-WPODYLpRzXW0rGQXO4Yl8n6FPxkAN5d8_d3z8jBn4W7S9ww6_Z3eaQK5VQ0frSvnC4IljSA/s1600/yakupov41.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8uSorDnjVK70-y6rqMfHksZV4KAO_V3jeDjdjB_cR4z32SishtYRGg_vTOPAKGbfwNAX-WPODYLpRzXW0rGQXO4Yl8n6FPxkAN5d8_d3z8jBn4W7S9ww6_Z3eaQK5VQ0frSvnC4IljSA/s320/yakupov41.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
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<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
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<b>The Oilers environment</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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First, let's take a look
at the Oilers' environment and the current state of the franchise. Although
rebuilding is all about future, let us examine why the Edmonton Oilers had and
continue to have problems competing in the Western Conference. The Western
Conference as compared to it's Eastern
counterpart is thought of as the grittier, bigger, tougher conference. The
Edmonton Oilers in their current state continue to struggle at elements like
engaging and winning puck battles, boardwork, clearing the front of the net and
puck possession, it is a team that is frankly outmatched both in terms of
compete level and size. If it looks to you like man against boys out there,
well that's because it is. It is true to a degree that the team is rebuilding, and
full of kids and thus shouldn't be expected to compete with older, physically
mature and experienced squads. But it is worrying when you look at the
fact that the only core player capable of excelling at the type of game played
in the Western Conference is Taylor Hall. While you don't need to have your
entire team filled with those type of players, that is a serious deficiency
when compared to most teams in the conference.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>The draft yields<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Now not all of that was in their control, let's
take a look at the players they selected as the core pieces to build around .
While it is too early to judge the past couple of drafts, it is fair to say
that none of them quite had the Stamkos/Tavares home-run pick that could set up
a franchise for years. To repeat while it is too early to judge the recent drafts
and whether the Oilers made the right selections or not at the top, let's
assume for the sake of the argument that they did take the best player
available. Even in that event the Oilers would be rather unlucky to wind up
with one center and two wingers, as I find wingers the least important position
on the team. A center or a defensman (and a goalie, but I am not a proponent of
drafting goalies with lottery picks as they are often too hard to project) are
far more ideal to build a franchise around. In short they wound up with a Ryan
Nugent-Hopkins (a rather smallish center but strong on the puck for his size
with terrific hockey sense), Yakupov (a flashy goal scoring winger) and Hall (a
gritty explosive winger). They also snagged up another core player in Eberle (a
skilled winger with a high hockey IQ) with a late first round pick. While those
players are nothing to sneeze at, the result is far from ideal in terms of team
composition. Consider that three first overall picks in 2009, 2008, 2007 would
net you Tavares, Stamkos, P. Kane. In 2006, 2005, 2004 that would net you E.
Johnson, Crosby, Ovechkin. The result of those lottery picks for the Oilers was
winger heavy and with a very projectable if smallish center. Overall rather
weak on the top-end talent when compared to past drafts and not quite ideal in
team composition when you consider the fact that most winning teams are strong
and deep down the middle, on defense and in goal. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Team composition<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Which brings us to the
next point – team composition. When we take a look at the Edmonton Oilers and
what they have in terms of core players at key positions, there isn't quite a
lot to hang your hat on. A long-term look shows lack of depth and quality on
center, defense and in goal. They do have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down the middle,
Schultz, Klefbom and some nice prospects on the back-end, and Dubnyk in goal, but
it is generally speaking not nearly enough once you take a look at for example
the current Stanley Cup champions. The Kings boast Quick in goal, Kopitar,
Richards at center (not taking into account Carter as he is capable of playing
center as well), Doughty on defense as standouts. While some of those have
arrived via trades to the Kings it is important to remember the Kings had a
similar future outlook even prior to them (Kopitar and B. Schenn at center,
Doughty, Jack Johnson on defense and Quick and Bernier in goal) and a similar team composition can be found
by observing other contenders. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Identity and culture</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Last, let's take a look
at the type of environment the Oilers management provided their youngsters
with. In my opinion there was and is a clear lack of culture and identity in the
organization. I did not see a pattern emerge as to what type of identity the
team wants to establish (the latest successful rebuild – the Los Angeles Kings
had even from the beginning a very clear vision of a big, gritty team set on
outcompeting the opposition) The closest I can think of is a skill team,
although I wonder if that is not simply as a result of the infusion of talent
via lottery picks rather than a set philosophy. It seems like the team has
finally realized it needs to become tougher to play against (the Fistric
addition for example), but the whole thing comes off as terribly reactionary
instead of proactive in establishing an identity. A better job could and should
have been done in providing an environment that lends itself to a winning
culture and proper nurturing of it's highly-touted youngsters.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Verdict</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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To finish it off, it is
clear the Edmonton Oilers will improve as a simple function of all the talent
infusion through the draft and through lottery picks, but the question remains
just how far can they go, is the management doing the best job in nurturing and
providing the type of environment and supporting cast needed for a future
contender or a Stanley Cup winner? Is there a winning culture and a clear
identity being built or is this team just a collection of players, assets
with no clear direction? Did the current management show enough for you to
trust them to lead the Oilers to the status of a perennial contender? While the
draft results at the top have been somewhat out of their control (as mentioned
before, the top talent in those draft classes arguably falls short to that of
years preceding them), I have not seen enough in previously outlined elements –
a large mismatch in values between Western Conference and the Oilers, lack of
proper team composition, and lack of an established culture and identity that
would lead me to believe that. Lastly even in the event some of the highly touted
pieces have to be moved, maybe one of the highly touted wingers to bring in a
defensman or a center or a goalie, have you seen enough quality work from the
current management group and GM Steve Tambellini to believe they will make the
right choices? Despite the team finishing at or near bottom in the past 3
years, there is still lots of work to be done before the Edmonton Oilers can
climb to the upper echelon of the NHL.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10178474789405907141noreply@blogger.com0