The Case for Defensive Defensemen

Here’s a controversial opinion, turns out Willie Mitchell might be just as valuable to a team as Ilya Kovalchuk, however since what he does isn't pretty or manifests itself in statistics it is a sacrilege to suggest this. You can expand this in general to wingers with little impact on the game when they're not scoring (there are worse examples than Kovalchuk) vs shutdown defensemen who can make a first pass and aren't boneheaded with the puck on their stick but don't put a lot of points on board. 

Since the part of the game that these type of wingers are really good at often manifests itself in either pretty dangles and points it is human nature to assume they have a bigger impact on the game as whole than they really do. A successful dangle or a quick look at statistics is very easy to notice, dangling when you have a better option open or not using your linemates as well as you could, not engaging or losing puck battles, poor positioning or lazy backchecking are often very subtle and forgiveable in human eyes when you just went through 2 guys (even if the end result is a turnover, a poor or a blocked shot or something else). This often leads to inflated contracts for these type of forwards. 

The defensive defenseman is basically the opposite of this. The part of the game they are good at doesn't really manifests itself well in statistics nor is the game they play pretty to watch or marvel at the technical skills like stickhandling, obscene shots etc.. I believe in general their contracts represent their value more accurately (though I wouldn't lose any sleep if a guy like Mitchell made 5 million instead of 3.5 which is probably below his actual value), however I think there is still some room for improvement in establishing who the best defensive D-men are when comparing them between eachother. 

It's pretty easy to say a statement like - this guy is a 30 goal scorer and justify 6 million per year without having to worry about being crucified despite the lack of his overall game (even if he bombs later), but there is nothing to hide behind when you're shelling out the money for a defensive-defenseman, it's only your opinion as to what he contributes to a team, no stats (although there has been progress in the advanced stats community) to base the value on, I do believe the GMs are much more conservative in handing out the money to the defensive D-men for this reason compared to goal scoring wingers.. For that reason I think defensive-defensemen on average receive contracts closer to their value than the goal-scoring type of wingers mentioned above do (Heatley, Kovalchuk, Semin, Kessel etc. well the Kessel contract isn't that bad). 

Edmonton Oilers: Addressing the Issues

Edmonton Oilers: Addressing the Issues

As I have pointed out in the previous post, there are four major issues with the Edmonton Oilers in regards to the process of rebuilding the team - the mismatch between the Western Conference and Oilers as it relates to the style of play (and the roster needed to play that style), the yield of their lottery picks, team composition, and the identity/culture of the team. Now let's take a look at the ways for the franchise to move forward, what are the possible routes moving forward and which should be taken.

First let us start off with what we can't change and that is the yield of their lottery picks. The Oilers couldn't do much here as mentioned before as the draft classes didn't quite sport the Stamkos/Tavares type of home run, not in the sense of top talent or in the positional sense (except for Nugent-Hopkins). So there is no point in spending much time addressing this issue, although it is worth mentioning the upcoming draft will be absolutely huge for the Oilers as it sports all types of high end centers and defensemen at the top, as well as getting a reputation for being a deep draft. For example players like Curtis Lazar and Ryan Hartman who don't quite figure to be lottery picks are exactly the type of players the Oilers need and would be an excellent addition in addressing multiple issue the Oilers ran into during their rebuilding process, although that is obviously up for a professional scouting staff to decide, I think it was worth mentioning those two players just as an example of the type of player that is missing in the Oilers organization.

As far as the comparison between the Western Conference and the Edmonton Oilers goes, there needs to be an immediate philosophy switch in the entire organization. The acquisitions of Mike Brown and Mark Fistric certainly point in this direction. It would of course be ideal if the management built the team with this in mind from the start, but it seems like Tambellini and co. have finally realized they have not been placing enough emphasis on the ability to engage and win puck battles and maintain puck possession. The team is frankly soft, and more size but especially grit (Mike Richards is a pretty small guy, but gritty) is needed.

The shift however should be a philosophical one, just adding a couple of gritty guys to the pro roster isn't going to cut it. There needs to be a clear culture and identity created. There needs to be a deliberate effort from the top management down to the scouting staff, the coaching staff at all levels, the development staff to look for and promote the idea of being tough to play against, set on outcompeting the opposition. This should be a team that doesn't trade Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene for Lubomir Visnovsky ever again.

The tough part is really the team composition part. The way I see it, there are only two ways to address it. One is to trade one of their core pieces to address the team composition the other is to take a wait-and-see approach and continue drafting and hope it sorts it out by itself. Personally I think they should not rush such a decision, long-term at least one of their holes will probably get addressed by this draft as it is absolutely stacked with high-end centers and defenseman. But I believe moving one of Eberle or Yakupov (I'm leaning towards Yakupov) will eventually be needed. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a center should be going nowhere, Hall is the type of player they should absolutely keep, in fact they need more Taylor Halls if anything. Between Eberle and Yakupov, I would definitely deal Yakupov as I feel despite having less pure athletic ability Eberle is frankly the smarter player of the two and will probably end up as the more well-rounded of the two as well. Yakupov I see as a poor man's Ovechkin/Kovalchuk hybrid nothing to sneeze at but my belief  is flashy goal scoring wingers are categorically overrated and often overpaid (there will be an in-depth post explaining my feelings on this eventually).

To summarize, the single most important thing the Oilers could and should do is to start looking at the entire operation through the goggles of identity. And that identity should promote character, two-way play, compete level, boardwork, play in the dirty areas, clearing the front of the net, outcompeting your opponent, being tough to play against, willingness to engage puck battles etc. you get the idea. Brian Burke would just call it truculence. Those are the type of players the Oilers should value and actively look to add through signings, trades and draft, something that becomes automatic when the entire organization looks through those goggles.

I realize this might sound like a bunch of hot air, I'm not a fan of that type of management rhetoric either, so the best way to illustrate it is to give examples. It doesn't have to be a huge trade, it should just be a philosophical switch, the Kings signed Michal Handzus at 4 million per year back in their rebuilding times, they overpaid to get the player that was a fit for their identity (or rather the type they wanted to build). They traded a young Patrick O'Sullivan who just scored 20 goals for Justin Williams, a player who fit their identity (something I think the Oilers should do on a bigger scale with Yakupov eventually, obviously Yakupov probably won't tank as O'Sullivan did but the principle is the same). They were all over Mike Richards once he became available (something in my opinion the Oilers should have done as well), they traded Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds and a 2nd for him, HUGE price, but the reality is if there's a poster boy for what the Kings are trying to achieve it's Mike Richards, so they pulled the trigger. Way back, they traded a defenseman who was somewhat soft and not a stalwart defensively but still a premier puck-moving defenseman in the league in Visnovksy for Stoll and Greene. A move that the public widely perceived as a win for the Oilers. At the time it looked like a top pairing puck moving defenseman or at best a second line center and a third pairing defenseman. But the reality is that move was a complete fit for the Kings and for the type of identity they wanted to achieve. This is the kind of mentality the Oilers should adopt. Once the whole organization sees it through those goggles, it manifests itself in drafting, development, trades, signings… It is not enough to just assemble talented players by itself. And if it means you have to eventually say goodbye to a Yakupov to bring the type of player(s) this team needs, that is going to fit that identity, then you do it, you are extremely careful about the parameters and the timing of it, but you do it. 

Edmonton Oilers: State of the Rebuild

Edmonton Oilers: State of the Rebuild

The Edmonton Oilers are an interesting franchise to examine as they have recieved a fair amount of attention in the recent past, although not quite for the reasons you would typically expect such as winning, but rather as a result of a run that has resulted in three consecutive  first overall picks (years: 2010, 2011, 2012) in the NHL entry draft. They finished last in seasons  2009-2010 and 2010-2011, and 29th with only the Columbus Blue Jackets behind them in 2011-2012, that same year they won the draft lottery resulting in them picking first overall for the third time in a row.

Although the shortened 2012-2013 season is still going and the standings in the Western Conference are rather packed, the Edmonton Oilers do not appear to have taken a major step forward.. While such results are expected of teams who are rebuilding, we will take an in-depth look at the Edmonton Oilers rebuild and whether the organization has done an optimal job in the process. To do that, we will look at the four elements – the Oilers environment, the draft yields, the team composition, and the identity and culture. Each of them I believe are the major sticking points and the reason as to why the process has not been optimal.

The Oilers environment

First, let's take a look at the Oilers' environment and the current state of the franchise. Although rebuilding is all about future, let us examine why the Edmonton Oilers had and continue to have problems competing in the Western Conference. The Western Conference as compared to it's Eastern counterpart is thought of as the grittier, bigger, tougher conference. The Edmonton Oilers in their current state continue to struggle at elements like engaging and winning puck battles, boardwork, clearing the front of the net and puck possession, it is a team that is frankly outmatched both in terms of compete level and size. If it looks to you like man against boys out there, well that's because it is. It is true to a degree that the team is rebuilding, and full of kids and thus shouldn't be expected to compete with older, physically mature and experienced squads. But it is worrying when you look at the fact that the only core player capable of excelling at the type of game played in the Western Conference is Taylor Hall. While you don't need to have your entire team filled with those type of players, that is a serious deficiency when compared to most teams in the conference.

The draft yields

Now  not all of that was in their control, let's take a look at the players they selected as the core pieces to build around . While it is too early to judge the past couple of drafts, it is fair to say that none of them quite had the Stamkos/Tavares home-run pick that could set up a franchise for years. To repeat while it is too early to judge the recent drafts and whether the Oilers made the right selections or not at the top, let's assume for the sake of the argument that they did take the best player available. Even in that event the Oilers would be rather unlucky to wind up with one center and two wingers, as I find wingers the least important position on the team. A center or a defensman (and a goalie, but I am not a proponent of drafting goalies with lottery picks as they are often too hard to project) are far more ideal to build a franchise around. In short they wound up with a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (a rather smallish center but strong on the puck for his size with terrific hockey sense), Yakupov (a flashy goal scoring winger) and Hall (a gritty explosive winger). They also snagged up another core player in Eberle (a skilled winger with a high hockey IQ) with a late first round pick. While those players are nothing to sneeze at, the result is far from ideal in terms of team composition. Consider that three first overall picks in 2009, 2008, 2007 would net you Tavares, Stamkos, P. Kane. In 2006, 2005, 2004 that would net you E. Johnson, Crosby, Ovechkin. The result of those lottery picks for the Oilers was winger heavy and with a very projectable if smallish center. Overall rather weak on the top-end talent when compared to past drafts and not quite ideal in team composition when you consider the fact that most winning teams are strong and deep down the middle, on defense and in goal. 

Team composition

Which brings us to the next point – team composition. When we take a look at the Edmonton Oilers and what they have in terms of core players at key positions, there isn't quite a lot to hang your hat on. A long-term look shows lack of depth and quality on center, defense and in goal. They do have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down the middle, Schultz, Klefbom and some nice prospects on the back-end, and Dubnyk in goal, but it is generally speaking not nearly enough once you take a look at for example the current Stanley Cup champions. The Kings boast Quick in goal, Kopitar, Richards at center (not taking into account Carter as he is capable of playing center as well), Doughty on defense as standouts. While some of those have arrived via trades to the Kings it is important to remember the Kings had a similar future outlook even prior to them (Kopitar and B. Schenn at center, Doughty, Jack Johnson on defense and Quick and Bernier in goal) and a similar team composition can be found by observing other contenders. 

Identity and culture

Last, let's take a look at the type of environment the Oilers management provided their youngsters with. In my opinion there was and is a clear lack of culture and identity in the organization. I did not see a pattern emerge as to what type of identity the team wants to establish (the latest successful rebuild – the Los Angeles Kings had even from the beginning a very clear vision of a big, gritty team set on outcompeting the opposition) The closest I can think of is a skill team, although I wonder if that is not simply as a result of the infusion of talent via lottery picks rather than a set philosophy. It seems like the team has finally realized it needs to become tougher to play against (the Fistric addition for example), but the whole thing comes off as terribly reactionary instead of proactive in establishing an identity. A better job could and should have been done in providing an environment that lends itself to a winning culture and proper nurturing of it's highly-touted youngsters.

Verdict

To finish it off, it is clear the Edmonton Oilers will improve as a simple function of all the talent infusion through the draft and through lottery picks, but the question remains just how far can they go, is the management doing the best job in nurturing and providing the type of environment and supporting cast needed for a future contender or a Stanley Cup winner? Is there a winning culture and a clear identity being built or is this team just a collection of players, assets with no clear direction? Did the current management show enough for you to trust them to lead the Oilers to the status of a perennial contender? While the draft results at the top have been somewhat out of their control (as mentioned before, the top talent in those draft classes arguably falls short to that of years preceding them), I have not seen enough in previously outlined elements – a large mismatch in values between Western Conference and the Oilers, lack of proper team composition, and lack of an established culture and identity that would lead me to believe that. Lastly even in the event some of the highly touted pieces have to be moved, maybe one of the highly touted wingers to bring in a defensman or a center or a goalie, have you seen enough quality work from the current management group and GM Steve Tambellini to believe they will make the right choices? Despite the team finishing at or near bottom in the past 3 years, there is still lots of work to be done before the Edmonton Oilers can climb to the upper echelon of the NHL.