I figured I would elaborate a bit on this post. To
repeat the message of it for a second, my belief is flashy goal scoring wingers
are the most overpaid/overrated position in the NHL. Why does that happen? In
short, their contracts get inflated for two reasons:
the
positive part of their game is the most easily recognizable – be it
stickhandling, shot, skating etc. and easily quantified by statistics,
the
negative part or the part that is often lacking is however easily dismissed or
overlooked – the lack of boardwork, lack of winning puck battles, poor
defensive zone game, perimeter only positioning etc., none of that shows up in
statistics (save for advanced stats but there is still progress to be made even
there especially on the defensive side of game)
It is human nature to put excessive importance on
point 1. It's far more breathtaking watching a succesful dangle rather than 5
board battles won. And then you have the fact that point 1 is far easier to
quantify with traditional statistics.
I'd like to focus now a bit now on concrete
examples. First let's take a look at some of the highest cap hits among
forwards and identify the type of wingers I wrote about, for the lack of a better term let's just call it the "flashy
winger" position. There can be some debate on who qualifies or not for that, but
I will try to to name some players I think most people would agree fit the
bill.
Cap hit rank among forwards
|
Player
|
Cap hit amount
|
8.
|
Dany Heatley
|
$7,500,000
|
9.
|
Marian Gaborik
|
$7,500,000
|
15.
|
Alexander Semin
|
$7,000,000
|
21.
|
Ilya Kovalchuk
|
$6,666,667
|
31.
|
Mike Cammalleri
|
$6,000,000
|
|
|
|
Of course there are other potential candidates to
point out with similar cap hits in excess of 6 million, for example some would
argue Patrick Kane is another "flashy winger", but I did not include him for
the reason that I feel he provides an additional dimension in being both a
playmaker as well as possessing an excellent shot.
Now consider the following metrics:
First to spare you an enormous table, you would have
to go all the way back to 1995 to find a winger winning the Conn Smythe trophy,
and that winger was quite different from the type we're talking about here,
it was Claude Lemieux. You would have to go futher back to 1982 to find another
one in Mike Bossy.
Now let's take a look at the way coaches shell out
ice time to their forwards (we know goalies and defensemen play more due to the
nature of the position so that would be rather unfair to compare). We're going
to take a look at some Stanley Cup champions' playoff statistics and analyze
them.
2012 – Los Angeles Kings
The most noticeable winger on that squad was Dustin
Brown, who is far from the protoypical flashy winger and whose cap hit is only
$3,175,000. He was tied for first in points (PTS) on the team with Anze Kopitar,
and was second among forwards in time on ice (TOI). Jonathan Quick was the Conn
Smythe winner.
2011 – Boston Bruins
Another team like the Kings notorious for not
spending on that type of winger, the closest was Phil Kessel whom they traded
to Toronto. The most noticeable winger was Brad Marchand, another winger far
from the prototypical flashy winger, another small cap hit. He was 3rd in PTS,
Milan Lucic received the most TOI among wingers and ranked 3rd among forwards.
Tim Thomas was the Conn Smythe winner.
2010 – Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is the first team with a somewhat of a fit
in Patrick Kane. Kane was 2nd in PTS, 2nd among forwards in TOI, Jonathan Toews
was the Conn Smythe winner.
2009 – Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh is another team who didn't invest in a
flashy goal scoring winger. I don't think there is any need to further look
into Pittsburgh when Bill Guerin received the most TOI among wingers and we
know the team boasted Crosby, Malkin, Staal down the middle. Conn Smythe to
Malkin.
2008 – Detroit Red Wings
Another team without a flashy goal scoring winger,
their most noticeable winger was Johan Franzen – a power forward with skill,
lower cap hit, 3rd in PTS among forwards, 3rd in TOI among forwards. Conn
Smythe to Zetterberg.
I'm going to stop here because as you can see this
excerise goes on for a long time without much of a change. While these metrics
are not perfect, they do tend to give you the general idea that highly skilled
wingers just aren't that important, so it makes me curious why year after year we see the obscene contracts (the latest being Semin) handed out to them.
I can think of three ways to better allocate funds
rather than engage in seemingly endless stupidity of reckless spending on flashy wingers:
Option A: If you really feel like you need that
highly skilled winger, I suggest going for a slightly less statistically
impressive options and have more money to allocate to C/D/G. Bobby Ryan has a
cap hit of 5.1 million, Jeff Carter 5.27 million, Tanguay 3.5 million,
Parenteau 4 million, Whitney 4.5 million, S. Kostitsyn 3 million, Vrbata 3
million, Havlat 5 million, C. Stewart 3 million, then there's J. Lupul at 4.25
million etc. Now some of those of course are more attractive than others, but
there's really no need to spend 7.5 million on Gaborik or Heatley (heck who
wouldn't take Bobby Ryan at 5.1 million over them).
Option B: Go after all around wingers with slightly
worse numbers, these guys are cheaper and you'll find a boatload of them
playing a prominent role on recent Stanley Cup champions. Again more cash to
spend on C/D/G. Some names: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Brad Marchand, Milan
Lucic, Johan Franzen, Jason Pominville, Loui Eriksson etc. Some guys mentioned
here could also be in option A and the other way around, again this is a bit of
a gray area (B. Ryan, J. Carter, Pominville and Eriksson could really go either
way for example) but I'm trying to give a general idea behind it.
Option C: If you really want to pay a winger make
sure that not only is he highly skilled but that he boasts a full all around
game as well. Examples: Rick Nash, Zach Parise, Marian Hossa, Thomas Vanek etc.
Now any combination of these three options is fine,
but it' still somewhat interesting seeing GMs shell out money to players like
Semin, Gaborik, Heatley etc. year after year despite there being no track
record of that ever working. It is far more prudent to spend less on wingers in
general and spend your money on C/D/G, but this holds especially true for the
flashy wingers with attractive traditional statistics, best avoided as their
market value seems to be significantly out of whack with their overall contribution to a winning team.